When people are moving through history, they seldom understand the significance of any specific period of days, weeks, or months. Just more days, right? However, it is a huge advantage to you if you have studied the trends and read what knowledgeable entities have to say. This can allow you to take advantage of the present situation and not have to say to yourself later: “If I’d only known, I would have ___________.”
Entities to know and listen to today are Harvard University, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and Warren Buffett. In particular, what these entities have to say with respect to the United States housing economy is important to us all here in the USA.
So, when is the best time would be to have your dream house designed and built. The answer: right now. Why? Because the new residential construction market has been at a virtual standstill for the last couple of years. This is what needed to happen, because America had been building 2 million new houses a year when it really only needed 1.2 million per year. That means that about 800,000 of the new residences a year built during the last 2 to 3 years was an ‘over-supply’, beyond what the normal demand could absorb. Kind of unbalanced, wasn’t it?
Much of this oversupply of new housing was from ambitious investors, trying to ride the residential price bubble and make a substantial profit. Unfortunately, when the oversupply of new houses began to just sit there on the market, unsold, it took other ambitious investors too long to understand the big picture of what was wrong and why they really should not have built at that time for strictly investment purposes.
So what has been happening during these skimpy construction years, beginning around 2008 and continuing through 2010? According to Warren Buffett, people are gradually buying the oversupply of houses, at bargain discount prices. This is an obvious consequence of the oversupply. So, while America’s housing market waits, this oversupply is being consumed by bargain hunting buyers. The big question is: When will the oversupply be sufficiently absorbed to allow people to return to normal housing design and construction?
All of the sources indicated above have reported, in one form or another, that the 3rd quarter of 2010 will show the first increase in housing spending since the end of 2008, and that the 4th quarter will show even greater housing spending. Mr. Buffett said in his February 2010 letter to his shareholders that the current housing situation “should largely be behind us by this time next year.” Which means that his information and research tells him that by February 2011, the housing market should be back to normal.
We all know that things of this magnitude do not happen over night, so Harvard’s statistical forecast about the 3rd and 4th quarter upturns in housing in 2010 make perfect sense. Understanding this, what can any of us do with this information to benefit our circumstances? Especially if we have been waiting on the fence, ready to have our new dream house designed and built?
Well, it appears that right now would be a prudent time to engage your residential architect to prepare the design for your proposed new house, then have your contractor price it and then begin construction as soon as possible. Why? Because when the housing market has fully recovered, what do you suppose will happen to prices? Right: they will increase. They are at record lows right now. If you want to take advantage of the current low prices, it would seem to make sense to put your design and construction on a fast track, before correcting market conditions erase the current economic advantage that you presently enjoy.
The time has come to design and to build.
Contact information for design and building of your proposed new dream house:
Rand Soellner HOME ARCHITECTS TM
For custom residential designs Anywhere throughout the USA, Canada, and the World.